Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Bangkok

What Really Happened in the Case of the Hezbollah/Terrorist Cache of Explosives?

(….. Besides a clumsily jumbled and disjointed flow of reliable news & information?)…

What Really Happened Was Nearly and Possibly the Makings of Thailand’s Worst Nightmare,…. & Amid Its Own Porous Security Blanket Being Openly Exposed

(Coincidentally, today is Thai Royal Armed Forces Day… So, thank a Royal Thai armed forces service member if you’re feeling grateful for the dedication these men and women who serve their nation selflessly show, often at their own risk. Many give their lives for the sake of their nation and commitment to their fellow citizens. They are far and away the most hard working, lowest paid and selfless of most Thai government emergency service personnel pound for pound, on call literally 24/7.)

Their “Worst Nightmare” is… Coming True?

… Facts:

#1 …. Mr. Atris, a Lebanese man carrying a Swedish passport, was arrested at Suvarnabhumi Airport on Thursday.

#2 ..… Police believed he had links to the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. Lebanese suspect Atris Hussein likely had many accomplices, including some Thais, reported Deputy National Police Commissioner General Pansiri Prapawa.

#3 …. Three Arabs had been seen going in and out of the shop house. They were last seen 6 months ago, but are believed to have already left Thailand.

Thai Police/Security Taking Few Chances From Here On...

#4 ….  Only ammonia nitrate is a controlled substance and its unauthorized possession constitutes a violation of Thai law. The over 4 tons of urea fertilizer isn’t illegal to purchase, store or ship. It just indicates you are either a farmer, doing excavating or mining, or just like to make huge bombs. Recommended they should enforce a maximum amount of urea that can be bought, stored and/or shipped legally by unregistered companies.

#5 …. Based on intelligence reports from the U.S. and Israel, which found that 6 months ago another group of 3 Lebanese men had also arrived in the Mahachai area (which is consistent with #3).

Probable: Police believed they may also be linked to Hezbollah, although there was no confirmation if they were still in the country, Police Lieut. General Winai said.

To understand the confusion that erupts when there is a major development in such a sensitive issue for Thailand, it helps to look at the broader picture in a global perspective. How does Thailand fit?

It essentially must try to ’straddle the fence’, taking what it needs in return for giving what it can, while painting a nationalistic picture of strong self-determination of leadership in the Thai way- fiercely independent and non-reliant on any outside ‘master’, free from foreign influence, dating back to the era of European colonization.

Yet the truth is often quite another thing, and what is often fairly accepted but hidden is a great amount of international cooperation, which nearly all sides recognize is in everyone’s best interests.

Comparing/Contrasting Different Regions, Policies and Political & Economic Interests,…

Vs. the U.S. & Global ‘War on Terror’ and Some Background on Global Anti-Terrorism Efforts, Or …  What’s Really Going On?

There are some who think that Asian & European intelligence agencies and governments aren’t involved in spending huge sums (relative to their GDPs) of time, energy and resources on intercepting, preventing and tracking terrorism, but this simply belies the more subtle and less ‘Front Line/ War on Terror’ approach used by these states, as they often have larger proportional Muslim immigrant populations, more porous inter-border transit, lax controls and are answerable for smaller regions of territory with more condensed, easily monitored population centers, as opposed to a vast enterprise of multi-national corporations characterized by America, Inc.

Its huge international diaspora in the post-war era spread prolifically throughout most parts of the world, while also the diverse, multitudinous array of U.S. gov’t, military and NGO organizations, affiliated schools, infrastructure and personnel are visible in most foreign countries with which the U.S. has diplomatic relations with.

Some former European colonials have a similar paradigm on smaller scales, but with fewer overall entities of vital interest, and comprises primarily just the U.K. and France. Their militaries are by no means as vast or as spread out as the U.S. military is for example, with numerous international commitments, bases and personnel spanning the globe. Nor are their commercial interests quite as obvious targets as say, prolific multinational corporations like big U.S. banks, airlines, technology giants, McDonald’s, Starbucks and huge American oil companies.

Thailand’s Own Iraq-Af-Pak Problem ….

To date over the last 7 years, Thailand has spent about $5-6 Billion, or about 170 billion baht on its failed effort to secure and stabilize the southern-most 3 provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani (and to some degree parts of Songkhla province). Thailand is approximately 5 to 6% Muslim, so it can be considered that it has a general population of approximately 4 million Muslims, with around 70% of those residing in areas further south of Bangkok, and whose largest urban areas of Songkhla/Hatyai are generally considered safe and have experienced relatively few problems.

As detailed in Human Rights Watch’s 2007 report, “No One Is Safe”, insurgent groups have used violence to try to drive ethnic Thai Buddhist populations out of the predominantly Malay areas, while keeping Thai ethnic Malay Muslims under control and continually discrediting Thai authorities.

According to police statistics, civilians make up more than 90% of the 4,700-plus deaths since 2004. That figure continues to rise daily, nearly unabated. Teachers, security forces, police, local leaders, monks, businesses, banks,’ rubber plantation workers- virtually all not aligned with ‘the struggle’ are targeted, with beheadings and slashed throats not uncommon.

Several insurgent groups like the Patani Freedom Fighters (Pejuang Kemerdekaan Patani) and separatist insurgents in the loose network of National Revolution Front-Coordinate (BRN-Coordinate) have suffered setbacks from security sweeps but still maintain a presence in hundreds of ethnic Malay Muslim villages in southern Thailand.

As the groups continue to cite abuses and heavy handed tactics, including torture and unjustifiable force by government forces in order to justify their attacks, some insurgent cells have merged with underground cartels involved in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and human trafficking across the Thai-Malaysian border, adding to the thriving criminality in the southern border provinces. These also have been at the root cause of a portion of the attacks as the groups seek to muscle out and get revenge on security forces for maintaining a network of heightened security checkpoints and border area clampdowns.

See Related Link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NA19Ae02.html

In the global context of terrorism, most countries have far fewer ports, airports, travel volumes, and GDP/commerce factors and military interests to consider in their fights against terrorists than America. They also tend to focus largely on their own populations and assets, not having spread as wide a global strategic network around the world. Germany is a great example. No foreign bases, few if any foreign troops based outside the country, etc., (which is well within their capability) but instead, it hosts huge U.S. military bases, armies of U.S. service personnel, and participates more with NATO & U.N peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts.

The UK, Spain, Holland, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Eastern European members and several smaller Scandinavian countries are on the front lines in the ‘war on terrorism’ like it or not, although most surely by choice. Israel is the poster child of all in terms of being on alert and high security, literally 24/7. Many moderate Arab states are also deeply involved in global terrorism security and military cooperation with the United States, although there are few public statements to wit, and their participation and sense of self-preservation in doing so is understandably serious.

The argument often referred to that the American government is famously known for ‘going over the top’ holds true, yet there have been no more 9/11’s (only smaller lone gunman or small cell subplots, such as in Ft. Hood, TX), no ghastly chemical, biological or radiological attacks due in large part to just exactly this yes, extremely costly obsession with preventing them.

Why? Simply, because the US will only get a few chances to let serious attacks slip through before all credibility and confidence in its ability to wage counter terror operations is lost. Cleaning up and rebuilding from post 9/11’s is a tremendous waste of resources too… The victims are widely international in our globalized world as well. Thus it must be a global effort. As usual the U.S. is seen at the forefront and although it may be ‘overboard’, it’s better 100% safe than sorry. Close doesn’t count….

They can be right a million times but wrong only a few. Thailand simply has the benefit (and joint responsibility) of being part of the global anti- terror network through its many western security and military relationships. Thai governments are smart to be willing to reciprocate in kind, benefiting from the symbiosis, contributing to intelligence, peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts and in the broader range of regional security, even as a well recognized U.S. Southeast Asian military ally. So be it. If they chose not to be, it would be at their own security expense. They currently don’t have that kind of luxury.

Differences in style and philosophy are rife….

What is not in contrast is the substance. Thailand stands to only benefit from integrated security partnerships that provide timely and sensitive intelligence regarding the movements and activities of terrorists in the region. Would you rather it not? There’s not much option realistically. The 4 tons of fertilizer and bomb making chemicals could’ve been exploded in anywhere in Bangkok or around Thailand- at resort areas, a busy transit area, a popular event aimed at murdering and maiming foreign nationals, targeting Christians or Jews, innocent women and children, random tourists/travelers and people just like me and you. They should have no right to choose that, yet the secrecy, brutality and anonymity they covet allows them that ability, at the expense of the greater good.

That is the core of the argument against allowing terrorists the freedom they seek to deny others. Given that the bomb plot had been considered ’successful’- if say, to cause ‘only’ 10 to 100 or so casualties,… If ‘only’ aimed at foreigners….

Leads to the ‘Why’…

Economic and Political Stability/Security Challenges

The Possibility that Bangkok Could be Attacked at the Hands of Terrorists Should be Considered

Imagine the blow to investor confidence and tourism then? Incalculable for Thailand, literally. The last thing Thailand needs, especially in light of the last 4-5 years of tourism disruptions.

Essentially Thailand’s tourism golden goose has been interrupted at various intervals every year or more frequently due to some catastrophic or politically driven events,dating back to the 2004 Dec. 26^th tsunami.

The following years were rife with political protests and instability, disease outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, Swine Flu), global economic shocks or severe weather calamities.

There are now many who realize the Thai tourism notion of a ‘Tropical Holiday of Bliss’ is waning as it is, due to commercialism, over-exploitation, lack of environmental concern and unethical business practices. Thai tourist trails are both glitzy and exotic, yet many are fading with mismanaged and underhanded exploitation. The recent floods only served to exacerbate the many problems due to neglect and a lack of shifting of priorities to ensuring a positive, clean and user friendly experience. Traffic congestion in Bangkok alone can turn people off to the long wait times it takes to merely get in, out of and around the capital.

The “Land of Smiles’ is long gone, (trust us) and if one wants to find a more Asian utopian version, it scarcely breathes any life or doesn’t exist, while Burma, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos are rapidly becoming more popular than Thailand, which is seen by many as going more the way of Singapore or Malaysia, which for most travellers gives a more highly developed tourism hub, though with less mystique and sense of unique adventurous allure, less popularity, already familiar branded sights and stricter laws on vices. Party-going foreign tourists are generally considered an endangered species there, while Thailand’s tourist areas and massive Bangkok and Pattaya nightlife is well known as Sin City. Have money? Let’s party!

Price is also a major factor, and prices here are much higher than just a few years ago. Food alone has increased at least 35% on average in less than 3 years. So has entertainment. Concerts, movies and snacks in theaters cost about the same as in the U.S. now. Tourist areas have prices that are usually double or triple the norm, and 2 -tier pricing for non-Thais is also widely practiced, much to the chagrin of visiting and longer stay tourists, expats and non-residents: whether you work locally and are taxed in Thailand, or not. Anytime you buy almost anything you’re taxed by VAT (7%) in legitimate retail stores anyway. Add on $++ for extra taxes, service charges, tips, parking and/or transportation, and an average night out for 2 in Bangkok or Phuket can easily cost as much as in most major international cities. Less developed tourism locations take time to build tourist volumes, and thus keep prices lower.

And this doesn’t even account for the continuous violent separatist war in southern Thailand that has continued nearly unabated for the last 7 to 8 years. It’s this factor that really has the Thai government worried- that their own Muslim anti-separatist battle (which they have clearly drawn a stalemate in, nor can win) will connect deeper and with sinister global tentacles that may morph into the greater global war on terror.

This would force dramatic foreign policy changes, push the security apparatus on their back feet and neccessitate more unpopular investment, support for and involvement with the more openly determined front- line terrorist fighting nations, similar to that of Singapore.

Yet Singapore, with its strict government controls, colonial past, wealth, efficient public and private sectors and extremely limited size and population can control its own outcomes with draconian determination, unfettered by political opposition. Thailand would have many problems within its own sharply divided and volatile political drama amid a heavily nationalistic, patriotically zealous and proud cultural identity to stay its own course.

Their Worst Nightmare…. The Southern Muslim Separatist Insurgency

Fortunately, major population centers and the golden egg-laying western tourist areas a little farther north, especially Bangkok, have been immune to the battle… That will largely determine whether it stays a confined and contained armed struggle or not. Global terrorists linking together with their own indigenous insurgency scares the pants off Thai officials…

Honestly, Bangkok is literally indefensible. The saving grace is the likelihood that the Muslim separatists in the south correctly judge that nearly the entire force of roughly 95% of the Thai nation would come down to bear one way or another on most if not all Muslims if this tactic was employed. Thais are highly unified in crises and a common enemy would only strengthen their collective national resolve, no matter the cost.

Strict emergency decrees are already long in force in the southern regions affected by the violence, which offers security forces a wide range of discretion and military powers at their disposal. Thus, the indigenous Muslim mindset is one of continued oppression and subjugation. In fact, their ideal of an independent, autonomous state free from Bangkok’s central government interference and domination is little different than that of the Palestinians.

Frequent exchanges between Muslims, Islamic universities and some extremists in other nations, like Pakistan, Indonesia, and especially in hard line neighbor Malaysia, is where the Thai resistance fighters get their indoctrination, training blueprints, backbone and support.

Occasionally a few Indonesians or others may come to the region and get involved, but the reality is that the deep- southern Thais are more closely aligned with Muslim Malays than upper- southern and central Thais. Malaysians and southern Thais are linguistically, religiously, historically and ethnically linked, can easily pass through borders both ways on a daily or weekly basis and borders stay open nearly around the clock in a similar way that the Mexican border and the many Hispanic Americans share their daily routines and roots much more in tune with fellow Mexicans and other Latinos than with the average American ‘gringo’, unless they work or attend school in an ethnically balanced non- Hispanic majority environment.

The cross border phenomenon of workers, families and friends living and working on both sides of the border then becomes a social standard and the normal context of their daily lives.

There as here, a porous, lengthy and unenforceable border is riddled with crime, violence, and smuggling. The major difference is a lack of a violent, armed struggle based on ideological and religious passions fueled by major human rights abuses, while the U.S. federal and state agencies can be nearly as effective in clamping down as they decide to be within their own combined context of legal, political and budgetary constraints. That the U.S. considers the Mexican border areas a huge security risk is highly evident.

It is highly significant that the current situation was spawned under Thaksin Shinawatra’s appointed military and police leaders enforcing dictatorial and abusive ‘kill or be killed’ operations. This is his continuing legacy of state violence,…No subsequent government since (and there have been many) has done much to bring about a substantive solution to the crisis. In essence, it’s the equivalent of a nuclear meltdown.

Prior to events in 2003-4, there were very few problems there. That the southern Muslims no longer trust most Thai governments’ leadership to ensure fair treatment is highly understandable. So, they simply developed a revenge- at- all- costs, ‘do or die’ strategy that leads to the current focus.

Back in Bangkok,….

Hussein had revealed in jail that bomb-making materials were being kept in a commercial townhouse in Samut Sakhon and that he used to drive around the capital taking photos of key sites.

Yet, when the charge was filed against him officially, he denied any wrongdoing.

Efforts to Contain or Solve the Southern Insurgency Have Been Frutiless

“We will question more witnesses and gather more evidence before deciding whether to file terrorism charges,” Deputy National Police Commissioner General Pansiri Prapawat disclosed.

Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Sihasak Phuangketkaew yesterday invited Judith Cefkin, Deputy Chief of Mission at the US embassy, to discuss the US warning about possible terror attacks. Clearly the Thai side is upset at being pre-empted by a prescient U.S. Embassy terror threat warning to its citizens here.

Will you rather take the priority of your safety here via a ‘Top Secret America’ styled terrorist/intelligence network taking the most proactive approach? I think most would agree any day….

Being the victim of terrorism isn’t exactly your idea of a blissful, relaxing holiday and would really destroy the entire ‘Thailand Miracle/ Amazing Thailand’ promulgated tourist facade of idyllic, vacation paradise splendor, wouldn’t it? It would render most of their entire tourism related marketing efforts into a sham and turn their tourism industry on end.

If the vast majority of visitors here would rather not see Thai authorities work in tandem with global intelligence agencies, feel free to enjoy the incredible sights in Pakistan, Afghanistan, African conflict zones, Mindanao or even the formerly peaceful, deep south of Thailand. We’ll see you, … if you return, …maybe not.

Bangkok’s Jewish/Israeli Connections & Hot Spots…

In the Hezbollah foiled attempt, a sketch released of a second man who appeared to be in his 30’s or 40’s described as a terrorist suspect who was traveling with Atris “bears great resemblance to Hezbollah operative Naim Haris”, Ynet, an online news website of Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily newspaper reported

“The latter’s photo was published last year by the Shin Bet [Israel's internal security agency], which at the time identified him as an operative in charge of recruiting Hezbollah agents worldwide,” Ynet reported on Sunday.  “Iran and Hezbollah may have now chosen Thailand as the target for a terror attack against Israelis, perhaps to avenge the recent espionage killings and blasts in Iran, or to take revenge for the assassination of Hezbollah’s military chief Imad Mugniyah some four years ago,” Ynet reported.

Lebanese media reports quoting Hezbollah members contested that argument, however.

Thai officials warned possible bomb targets included Bangkok’s popular Khao San Road, where inexpensive entertainment venues are popular late into the night and also is home to Bangkok’s Jewish Chabad House, permanently guarded by Israeli and Thai security.

Upstairs is a Jewish designated floor with a small orthodox synagogue that is segregated according to gender and free phone lines from Bangkok to Israel, Internet terminals and other travelers’ amenities and facilities.

It is also visited by hundreds of mostly Israeli travelers every Saturday evening for religious services and free dinner. Directly across from Chabad House is the multi-story Viengtai Hotel frequented by Israeli tourists who want to be close to Chabad House and dine at its downstairs public kosher restaurant.

A second possible target is perhaps Bangkok’s Sukhumvit Soi 22 as it is crowded with tourist venues and the Beth Elisheva Synagogue, Thailand’s main center for Jewish services. One street over, on Sukhumvit Soi 20 is a Hebrew school.

Finally more from Human Rights Watch:

On Sept. 16, 2011 bombings in Narathiwat’s Sungai Kolok district, utilized methods typically employed by ethnic Malay Muslim insurgent groups in southern Thailand who seek a separate Muslim state, Human Rights Watch said. 3 bombs exploded at 15 to 30 minute intervals, while police defused a fourth. The later bombs may have been planted and timed to target security and medical personnel rushing to the scene of the first attack, Human Rights Watch said.

“Insurgents who bomb nightspots know they will kill and maim numerous civilians,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “This is not an armed struggle but a sickening crime.”

See the Link to Related Stories:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Suspect-had-many-accomplices-police-30173963.html

What Scares Thai Authorities Most is the Insurgency Morphing Into a Global Terror Battle

http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/09/20/thailand-southern-insurgents-bomb-nightspots

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Hezbollah-calls-off-attacks-30173763.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Govt-needs-to-learn-from-this-terrorism-case-30173946.html

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/275749/us-wants-to-question-suspect